End game?

Final lap?:

Negotiators for General Motors Corp. and the United Auto Workers were close to finalizing the details of a new contract Sunday after 20 straight days of talks, according to a local union official who is being briefed on the discussions.

The two sides have wrapped up work on most issues and were down to determining how much money GM must put into a trust fund for retiree health care that will be managed by the UAW, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the talks are private. The official expected a final deal could be reached as early as Sunday evening, although others said it could take longer.

"My sense is they are close. I think this is the end game," said Harley Shaiken, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley who specializes in labor issues and has been closely following the talks. "They may be approaching a resolution, but if that's in the next two hours or the next two days, it's hard to say. There are a lot of complex issues yet to be resolved."

Of course, wasn't the amount of money going into the VEBA pretty much THE main issue in the first place? Maybe they're closer on a consensus number, or maybe the question is this:

Other key issues that remain to be clarified include how GM funds its VEBA contribution and whether the UAW deal allows the automaker to issue stock or tap its over-funded pension for some of the amount.

Earlier this year, the UAW agreed to a VEBA for bankrupt auto supplier Dana Corp funded at 71 percent of its liabilities, a level considered to be a benchmark in the GM talks.

Part of the funding for the VEBA could also come from cost-of-living increases that would otherwise have been paid to active workers. The UAW has allowed such transfers to pay for health care in contracts going back over 25 years.

The article also points out how much leverage it would give the UAW in the fight for the future of health insurance nation-wide. With over a million people in its risk pool, that's a significant chit to play in negotiations with big HMO's and the Republicans (and unfortunately, Democrats) they fund politically. Imagine those 1.2 million people in the VEBA buying into John Edwards' public run, Medicare-like plan.

That being said, the union has to make sure it gets enough money to fund the VEBA in the first place, as healthcare costs keep rising. From earlier reports, it didn't sound like GM was too excited about funding even that 71% that Goodyear, in much worse shape, put down.

And, they have to measure future production plant promises, as well. Those are the two most important things, clearly, and GM is playing them off each other. How the next President handles healthcare is a wild card, and one the UAW cannot play incorrectly. Do they take less VEBA funding anticipating some kind of universal healthcare? Remember, Edwards and Hillary (stealing from Edwards) will be requiring employers to pay for healthcare as a large part of the plan, so the VEBA exonerates GM, Chrysler and Ford from that requirement. Do they hope price controls send the price down enough, or that workers will qualify for a good chunk of assistance when it comes to the sliding premiums they will offer? I'd imagine that the public plan will be the one chosen by the UAW if the Edwards (and I guess Hillary) plan goes through.

So, how do you measure that against actually keeping jobs here? It'll be interesting to see what balance they strike.